Richard and John review the challenge to US oilfield service firms in accommodating a significant
increase in oilco activity in 2022. Topics addressed include market segmentation by operator size,
contract duration requirements, risks from new technologies, and the potential for market
Richard and John preview the upcoming discussions between oil company managements planning to
significantly increase capital spending in 2022 and possible pushback from investors. Topics addressed
include long-term versus short-term demand expectations, “resilient” reserves and “bifurcated”
Richard and John review the findings the EIA’s newly-released outlook for the global energy market to
2050 and discuss its implications for the oilfield equipment and service industry.
Richard and John identify next year’s market segment winners and losers and discuss the factors driving differences in the rate of revenue growth in 2022.
Richard and John identify 2021’s market segment winners and losers and discuss the factors driving the
differences in revenue growth this year.
Richard & John go over common biases when forecasting....anything.....but especially the oilpatch.
Richard and John discuss the 2022 outlook for US frac activity, including rig activity, DUC drawdown rate and frac pricing.
Richard and John discuss how they expect US operators will decide to allocate next year’s free cash flow.
We're back after a summer hiatus. This week we recap what's gone on this summer, quarterly financials, and how operator price assumptions affect their decision making in 2022.
Rising oil prices & less anticipated demand -- how do we interpret conflicting projections for oil demand?
In the third of a two-part series Richard and John discuss how challenges in implementing net-zero emission (NZE) plans could revise the (bearish) long-term outlook for oil and gas demand. What are some of the key issues that could impact how quickly NZE goals will be realized?
In the second of a two-part series Richard and John discuss how current drilling and completion
operations are being impacted by long-term climate change expectations and what the implications
could be for US oil and gas production.
How climate change & net zero are causing wet frac sand to show up on location.
Richard and John discuss the factors driving the Q1 increase in US drilling and completion costs, the capital spending outlook for US operators, oil demand elasticity and the outlook for oil prices.
A big picture look at what comes next.
Richard and John discuss four oilpatch events/trends they expect to emerge in Q2 2021: shortages,
restructuring, bifurcation, and SPACs.
The ongoing recovery in US drilling activity has caused some spot shortages for materials to emerge. At
the same time, the number of new job openings for oil service workers has more than doubled since Q4
of last year. Richard and John discuss what this might mean for the cost to drill and complete wells,
efficiency, and where the next shortages are likely to appear.
Richard and John discuss whether net-zero initiatives will be sufficient to keep ESG-sensitive funds
invested in oil companies. Plus a Gilbert and Sullivan reference!
Richard and John review information regarding recent trends in oil service activity and pricing found in the Spears industry dataset.
Lost in last week’s headlines about sub-zero temperatures, rolling blackouts and soaring energy costs
was news about what has become the most important price for the US petroleum industry. Richard and
John discuss SCC and its impact on the oil and gas sector.
Richard and John review the financial performance, capital structure and capex activity of oil service
firms accounting for over half the global oilfield equipment and service market. Will their improved
financial performance trigger an increase in M&A activity in 2021?
Are there millions of unplugged abandoned wells in the US as some have claimed and whether it would be worthwhile to plug them to cut down on GHG emissions and provide jobs. We also talk enteric fermentation, or methane emissions per cow-year.
Richard and John use voice of the customer responses to reveal challenges in determining trends in frac
the McNamara Fallacy
will prioritizing efficiency over effectiveness continue?
Richard and John review the financial performance and capital structure of publicly-traded oil
companies accounting for one-third of the US market and discuss the potential for a sharp recovery in
their capital spending in 2021.